Current events - Guidelines 1st Post.

[Nymatic]

In my opinion, it is not about celebrating whether we got Osama or not, we should be thankful that, at least from his time, that he cannot hurt anyone else today. Now we need to watch the rest of what is left of his group, and make it so that they can never harm one of our or their own people ever again. From what I've heard, we aren't supposed to "worry" about his replacement, but it would be good to keep vigilant anyway.

Now comes the question of what next will happen in the East. Will we stay to stabilize the government? Or leave fate to the wind? I don't think Obama's presidency will be the one to finish things up, but we need to start thinking about it. We still have soliders over there risking it all for something that might not even matter in the end.

[Soleil]

Al Qaeda (however it's spelled) has already made threats and said that they will avenge his death, so people who think "omg yay! the threat is over" are stupid. If our government/military didn't think that they would do this, then they are stupid as well. Everyone thinks that just because their leader is killed that Al Qaeda will curl up and die, when normal people see that there has always been a 2nd in command who will take over and they will do something to avenge his death and prove that they are not in fact laying over and quitting.

[wolfeyedangel]

You're making a pretty sweeping statements without a lot of backing (Edit to elaborate: I am specifically referring to the assumption that everyone sees the complete threat as over, rather than a singular threat having been eliminated). And for the record: The military are going to be keeping their big yaps shut anywhere they see a reporter. Quickest way to get anything to the enemy is tell a reporter. Second quickest is to tell congress (where someone will tell the reporter, who will plaster it all over the public air waves that the enemy reads).

As for bin Laden, here is my take as an analyst based on the news reports so far. Removing him likely has removed a lot of al Qaeda's cohesion. This is likely to go one of 2 ways:
First a few notes and what they mean: The top slot is now up for grabs. The handful of tippy top people are going to be duking it out for the job. The one the news keeps mentioning is a certifiable nut job, (even in the basket of mixed nuts he's nuttier than most of them put together.) I would be extraordinarily surprised if he was the ONLY factor and there was a smooth transition. So now for the options.

1) They direct their power plays at each other and spend some time blowing their rivals and perceived rivals up in order to claim the top slot which buys us a reprieve and hopefully they decide to keep it to their own compounds rather than the streets.

2) Various rivals attempt to stage attacks of their own to 'prove' who is strongest to get the support to take the top slot.

The results could go one of two ways as well, from either path.

1) al Qaeda breaks up into separate factions. Some go POOF because they don't have the funds to support themselves, or they get subsumed into other groups. Some remain going concerns but with divided resources.

2) After doing a certain amount of internal damage to itself and potential external damage to other people, someone takes the top slot and starts rebuilding.

Over all there is going to be a reorganization and rebuilding period. At the very least they're going to be re-thinking their security concerns. you can see similar patterns to varrying degrees in any organizational make up. Especially in places where you don't have a clear and defined next in line. In politics they tend to get called "Wars of Succession".

I've said before, I would have preferred, personally, that he be remanded into custody for trial, but that's not always possible in a fire fight. I'm glad he, personally, is no longer a factor in the equation. I don't see enough cohesion in these groups for there NOT to be at least some infighting. Where and how it spills over I don't have access to the intel to try and say, and prefer not to speculate on absolutely nothing.

~Wolf

[Soleil]

Oh I grossly over-exaggerated, for sure. When I said everyone, I meant it as "everyone I have seen on the news/heard in person/etc" has acted that way not that "every single person in the country acts this way", which I should have clarified but I failed to do so. Back when it was being smotheringly covered every night, there were quite a few instances of random citizens being interviewed that more or less insinuated that the threat is over, get the soldiers out because there is no use for them there anymore, etc.

Results Option 1 is probably the one everyone is rooting for, including the military and govt. I can definitely see it happening as well, as they all battle for the top slot which inadvertently will tear the organization apart from the inside out.

I personally think Option 2 is more likely to happen, even with the second in command being a certified nut, there will probably be someone there to take over and rebuild it back to (or at least close to) what it was during the Osama reign. And then the threat is back at a high level because if it does go this way, they will probably start the vengeance/retaliation (either in their own country or others..) for his death.

Though no one can be sure about it, I guess only the future will tell.

[wolfeyedangel]

*nods* The main advantage of the next highest ranking guy being a nut job, is that while it's good copy to the foot soldiers, that level of nut job tend not to make huge amounts of money for the cause and terrorism costs money, at least the big parts of it do, which is where I see the split coming: Do we wind up with one group that has money and no foot soldiers, and another that has foot soldiers and no money and how rationally will these individuals deal with each other when the charismatic control factor has been removed from the equation. I've seen less of the 'it's all over' out here, then again we've got enough folk who've been recently deployed and are recently BACK that the military's 'battle won, war not over' general attitude is seeping through. I'm not sure how regional that is.

For the most part, on the split: The high mucky mucks tend to be in it for the power not for the ideology (which isn't to say they don't believe what they're spouting, I'm betting some do, and some just find it a convenient way to disguise their real motives.) A certain level of rationality is required at the strategic level. I'm thinking there will be at least SOME break, and no matter how it goes there will have to be a period of rebuilding after the power struggle. As long as OUR high mucky mucks don't give in to the notion that it's all over we should be able to meet the next stage more ready rather than less.

Caveats and disclaimers: this is all analysis from the news, my own time in Iraq, and general understanding of the structural psychologies involved. Getting more specific would require access to classified information which I couldn't tell you about anyways if I had it. I can see quite a few holes and unknowns that could bite us in the posterior, but there's not much I, personally, can do about those.

~Wolf

[Rythalion]

I do possibly have a rather strict view on this topic.. ^^;

I think no one should be killed. And Osama was killed. I understand that a lot of people do feel more than just anger when thinking of this man - but I do oppose any killing. I am of the opinion that it would have been better if they would have arrested him and would have brought the entire case to court.

There is no 'justice' in killing another living being. This is plainly just 'revenge'.

I also don't know whether the threat the organisation behind him stood for will be over. In fact I rather doubt it. Osama was not the man who took action anymore. The main decisions are taken by others. bin Laden was a symbol and that symbol is gone. Now he is a martyr.

[Eclaire]

I've been out there. I've had friends come back with more than just a tan. Anyone that's been in it isn't going to subscribe to being a bleeding heart liberal sitting around a campfire hugging each other.

My Opinion: Honestly, a bullet to the head was too good for this kind of thing. I hope they wrapped him in pigskin before dumping his body into the ocean. As for the whole "retalitation" that they promised... well, the attacks/attempted attacks haven't stopped since 9/11. Who honestly thinks that now, because Osama is dead, that all of a sudden the terrorists are going to "up their game"? Doubtful.

[TxCat]

I've been out there. I've had friends come back with more than just a tan.

I'm neither a bleeding heart liberal nor sitting around a campfire and I do not agree with you.

My neighbor is a decorated fighter pilot --- he has more fruit salad than you could possibly find in a buffet --- but he's on the high side of the age at which he could continue doing that job. They gave him a choice: three years of duty in a non-combat situation or one year of duty in a high risk situation in order to make his retirement and next rank.

He went to Iraq. I don't know what happened to him --- he doesn't talk about it --- but whatever happened over there destroyed him. His truck had always had a proudly displayed American flag on its window; he took that down. Some nights we'd see him out there in his camo tank top and trousers only with a compass just wandering up and down the road. He'd neither see nor speak to anyone. Eventually his family came and took him away for a while. His hair had been dark when he left; it had gone stark snow white.

Two years later, he moved back to his home here. I wouldn't call him a shell of a man, but he still doesn't speak much and there's a...haunting...in his eyes that never goes away. The only thing he will say is that he cannot and will not condone what he saw over there and that the US government has lost his support forever.

That, from a veteran whose life was the service. He's not the only one I know who came back in that condition and with that conviction. That, to me, tells me that something is wrong over there and it's something we ought not to be involved with. When the US government starts losing the support of its veteran troops, it's time to rethink policies.

These are not young men and women who never expected to see combat or who thought they'd do their time and get out and go to college and leave the service behind. These are older men and women in their 30s, 40s, and 50s who chose the military as their career and who no longer support their commander in chief because of orders given and because of what they saw and were forced to do in a foreign country.

That speaks more to me than anything the media or the political spin doctors could say.

And I've been there, most of my life. Several times we were assigned to political hot zones because my father was army intelligence. I grew up in an era in which the terrorists were Eastern Bloc countries who carried suitcases they put into people's cars which would blow up when the pressure was released or who constructed fire extinguisher bombs to put in the military housing complexes where the families lived.

There will always be SOMEONE who doesn't like us. This isn't new and it never has been. It's as old as this country and then some.

Honestly, a bullet to the head was too good for this kind of thing. I hope they wrapped him in pigskin before dumping his body into the ocean.

We don't gain anything by stooping to their level. There was ever so much more to be gained by capturing him and interrogating him than there was by shooting him. Additional dishonor to the body is not needed and reflects poorly on the US as a nation. What we really need to do is mind our own business and get out of there, especially since we weren't ever asked to BE there by any of the Middle Eastern peoples. There is only one time in history that I could find where the US was directly asked to intervene and that was in the invasion of Kuwait. Kuwait asked for help to get Iraq out of its borders and appealed directly to the US for help, which we rendered.

The rest of this mess is nothing more than Great Britain and France not wanting to let go of outdated colonial ideas about who should own what in the Middle East. Let them fight their own wars, build their own governments, and elect their own officials. It doesn't matter if it's a democracy or not as long as the people elected the officials and put them into power.

This garbage about the Middle Eastern countries electing anti-American governments and then overpowering us is just that --- garbage resulting from a poor understanding of the cultures and peoples involved.

[Eclaire]

I'm neither a bleeding heart liberal nor sitting around a campfire and I do not agree with you.

That's great for you. I am not asking for you to agree with me. It's nice that you have your own opinions.

He went to Iraq. I don't know what happened to him --- he doesn't talk about it --- but whatever happened over there destroyed him...The only thing he will say is that he cannot and will not condone what he saw over there and that the US government has lost his support forever.... who no longer support their commander in chief

That's right. You don't know what happened. I am surprised he didn't say anything to a fellow service member. Maybe this guy just didn't have the stomach to do what he had to do. There are indeed career people who are flaky and just in it for the retirement. I don't support the people who are in the US government now, especially the worthless sack of garbage that was elected as president. The whole of the American people let down the country during that election year. Most of the people I have worked with aren't reenlisting if nObama gets re-elected. Quite a few have already quit because he was put into office in the first place. Another took his retirement early because he didn't want Obama's signature on his certificate. We lost so many outstanding service members because of him. There is no God if he gets re-elected.

And I've been there, most of my life. Several times we were assigned to political hot zones because my father was army intelligence.

Ok, so you weren't actually serving on a convoy or anything of that sort? You were just hanging out in the desert? What I was referring to were - actual combat zones, not places like Qatar. So our "there" seems to be two different things entirely. Should I rephrase it and say that I am a 90% disabled veteran - I was lucky - my friends weren't - and let that put the gravity of what I have seen and done into perspective. Yet still I am all for KILLING THE ENEMY.

We don't gain anything by stooping to their level.

See, a lot of people seem to think there is such a thing as a "high ground" or being "above" doing something. That's all preachy liberal garbage that is usually spewed by people who are too afraid to get their hands dirty. This nonsense line of thinking is on par with putting your kids in "time out" instead of taking a belt to their backsides. There are a few simple facts in this world and one of them is that your enemies must be eradicated. It's the lovey dovey mushy carebears that are weakening our culture. Most of these insane hippie ramblings are being taught in our colleges and universities. Young adults are brain washed into thinking like carebears instead of facing reality and realizing how utterly stupid and useless those ideals are. It's a sad ordeal that our culture is being polluted by dirty hippie propaganda.

This is it for me tho. Not going to debate how wrong hippies are. I know they are wrong and hopefully one day they will grow up. Until then they can have their opinions and roast marshmallows around the campfire with each other while the enemy sneaks up behind them.

[TxCat]

That's right. You don't know what happened. I am surprised he didn't say anything to a fellow service member. Maybe this guy just didn't have the stomach to do what he had to do.

A lot of maybe's and what-ifs from someone who didn't know him either. He'd been my neighbor for fifteen years...and he's not the only one. I live next to Jacksonville NAS, Camp Blanding (the National Guard's major deployment and recruitment center plus one of only nine artillery training ranges still in operation) and Craig Field which routinely flies supplies to our war zones. I'm actively involved in my community; most of them are air force, naval, and ground reserve personnel.

I rather think that if he'd not had the stomach to do what he had to do --- same with the others --- they'd not be wearing the decorations they wear. I know them by heart: Purple Hearts, Distinguished Service Crosses, several other high honors. A good handful have clusters indicating they were the only ones to survive out of their entire unit. I know these decorations because my father wore them. He died in the line of duty...and we were there with him.

In answer to your question:

Ok, so you weren't actually serving on a convoy or anything of that sort?

I lived most of my life in war zones...and I'm older than that. Sudan, Panama, the Far East, the edge of the Iron Curtain. Yes, I've been there. I've been IN a gamma goat marked with a bright red cross when it was shelled. These were supposed to be 'training manoevers' and so they'd allowed the families up for a rare visit. I've seen people run over by tanks because the opposing side didn't want the refugees making it to the safety zone. In Panama, the jungle was a mere fifty feet from our quarters, which were off base. They were bombed twice by insurgents while we were there.

I don't remember much about Sudan except we were never allowed out of the compound. EVERYTHING was brought in and while we were there. The front gates were rammed by extremists with explosives tied to their vehicles so many times I lost count. I've gone to bed on stand-by with tracers arc-ing over our assigned quarters and explosions shaking the plaster off the walls.

I've also been in the convoys. It was sometimes necessary for the families to travel in that manner (in case you hadn't noticed, these places don't exactly have a lot of roads and airports). My sister is partially deaf because the truck in front of us hit an IED and the concussion blew out her ear drums.

My school instructions included how to break down, clean, and fire an M-16 (they probably use better weapons now). It also included casualty drills and how to patch up things like sucking chest wounds and how to use what you have at hand to try to save a life.

I've had to use that knowledge. I don't ever want to do so again. No child should have to.

I'm almost forty. I was born into the army as a dependant of one of the men civilian folk casually call spooks and until he died in the line of duty (again, in a war zone) I remained one. I am the daughter of a man who literally paid in blood for the ideals of this country...which is why I do not, in spite of what I have seen in my lifetime, condone doing like for like. It soils what he did there, it soils what he gave his life for. To act like the enemy is to become the enemy and then where are we? A bunch of people fighting over an oily patch of desert sand.

Should I rephrase it and say that I am a 90% disabled veteran - I was lucky - my friends weren't - and let that put the gravity of what I have seen and done into perspective. Yet still I am all for KILLING THE ENEMY.

Different experiences but some of the same scars, I think. To you I say thank you...thank you for doing what you had to do whether you liked it or not. That I will always cherish and value because of him. I understand killing an enemy. However, because my father was special intelligence (or whatever it is they call it these days) I am also understanding of the value of that intelligence. I value that too because it saves lives.

See, a lot of people seem to think there is such a thing as a "high ground" or being "above" doing something.

I don't think we're going to agree then. My experiences --- and I have had plenty, whether an 'official' part of military personnel or not --- lead me to believe that there is indeed a better way. The problem with painting so broadly with that brush is that 'the enemy' becomes utterly faceless and extends

Most of these insane hippie ramblings are being taught in our colleges and universities. Young adults are brain washed into thinking like carebears instead of facing reality and realizing how utterly stupid and useless those ideals are. It's a sad ordeal that our culture is being polluted by dirty hippie propaganda.

And it's even sadder to hear someone who fought for this country to be wanting to deny a very basic guaranteed right. Just because they are not your ideals, that does not mean they should be suppressed or thrown out or called stupid. And you're also incorrect on another assumption --- I'm nearly forty, by no means a young adult, and I've already demonstrated that it's the school of hard knocks, not our universities (sorry, never been to one...all I could afford was a small practical state college which gave me the means to teach in our schools), which formed my ideals.

I know there's evil out there. I've seen it. However, I like to think that in spite of having seen it I will not let it consume me. A prince from the Middle East, now dead in a bombing, once put his religious beliefs and morals at risk --- risked being ousted from his family and his culture --- to help me and saved my life while a group from Annapolis and another from the Air Force Academy stood by laughing at the damage they'd done and without lifting a finger to help.

I've seen both sides. I'm sorry you've been so badly hurt that these are not your ideals any more and I'm still grateful for your service --- always will be, it's ingrained in my raising --- but the whole point of my Pa's death at least was so that people could say and do things that were stupid in the freedom he protected.

One thing I HAD to learn when he died and my family was thrust back into civilian society is that the enemy is NOT always all around you and you need not meet the world with that kind of hostility. It was a hard earned, hard gotten lesson and one I still have to work at.